The United States men’s national team now knows its path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and it’s not going to be easy — far from it.
Although the U.S. won Group D by winning two group-stage matches for the first time since 1930, it is expected to play just one team ranked lower than it in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings through the knockout stage due to some surprises on the final days of group play.
Additionally, the United States is already a long-shot to win the World Cup even after its strong start to the tournament with +3500 odds, the ninth-best odds in the field. Still, the Americans’ performance in the group stage has dared their fans — and themselves — to dream.
Here’s everything you need to know about the United States’ path to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final:
How USA’s Path Was Decided
(Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
This simulation of the United States’ path to the World Cup final assumes two things:
- That the U.S. defies expectations and wins every game of the knockout stage, through the final.
- That the team with the highest FIFA ranking in every other matchup wins as expected, starting with the round of 32.
This creates the hardest — and maybe most realistic — path for the U.S. to make the final:
Round Of 16 vs. Belgium
(Photo by Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
Date: July 6
Location: Seattle Stadium
- Projected opponent: Belgium
- FIFA Rank: 10
- Record: 2W-2D-0L
- Tournament odds: +4500 (12th-best)
Quarterfinals vs. Spain
(Photo by Patrick Smith – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
Date: July 10
Location: Los Angeles Stadium
- Projected opponent: Spain
- FIFA Rank: 3
- Record: 3W-1D-0L
- Tournament odds: +550 (3rd-best)
Semifinals vs. France
(Photo by Lui Siu Wai/Xinhua via Getty Images)
Date: July 15
Location: Dallas Stadium
- Projected opponent: France
- FIFA Rank: 1
- Record: 5W-0D-0L
- Tournament odds: +360 (Best)
Final vs. Argentina
(Photo by Tullio Puglia – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)
Date: July 19
Location: New York New Jersey Stadium
- Projected opponent: Argentina
- FIFA Rank: 2
- Record: 3W-0D-0L
- Tournament odds: +500 (2nd-best)
