If PlayStation 6 or Xbox’s Project Helix launch at $1,000, it could lead to a large drop in next-gen adoption.
That’s according to Ampere Analysis, which has produced a new report suggesting that if Sony and Microsoft decide to launch “conventionally designed, incrementally improved next-generation consoles” in 2028 at a price of $1,000, the rate at which players will buy those consoles will drop considerably compared to this generation.
Specifically, its scenario forecast suggests that the combined number of PS6 and Xbox Helix consoles sold after the first five years could be up to 38% lower than the combined sales of PS5 and Xbox Series X/S over the same period.
This would also lead to an impact on consumer spending, with Ampere estimating that, by 2031, the console games and services market across PlayStation and Xbox would be $3.4 billion (12%) lower than if the consoles were sold for $700.
The price of PlayStation, Xbox and Nintendo hardware has been rising in recent times, due to a combination of the continued global component shortage and trade wars.
Given that these recent price increases mean a PlayStation 5 Pro is now up from its $700 launch price to $900, some analysts say there’s a real possibility that $1,000 may be the base level for next-gen systems.
Ampere offers three strategic solutions to avoid a $1,000 price point
Ampere has suggested three potential strategic models for Sony and Microsoft, if they want to avoid launching at $1,000 and sell for as low a price as possible.
Firstly, they could continue with their current strategy to release an incrementally improved version of the previous hardware, but “delay the launch of the next generation beyond the end of 2028, extending the lifecycle of current consoles” while they wait to see if the cost of components eventually drops.
Secondly, they could continue to aim for the 2028 window expected by analysts, but reduce the prices by making use of “heavier hardware subsidies, new monetisation models, more aggressive digital content strategies and optimised sales channels”.
Finally, they could pivot in a different direction and “substantially innovate on hardware form factor and use cases, placing less emphasis on graphical improvement”. This would allow them to offer a next-generation experience that is clearly different from the current-gen one, but would keep prices low (similar to the strategy Nintendo implemented with the Wii).
Xbox has already made indications that it will be following the second and third of these options for Project Helix, offering something notably different from the current generation (an expected PC-console hybrid), with a potentially different payment structure.
In June, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma suggested the platform holder was looking at ways to make Helix more affordable, saying: “I think we’ve reached a point where it will be hard to imagine that mass audiences can afford thousands of dollars to spend on a console generation, and so I think we will start to see radically different business models that we never expected start to come into orbit later this year.”
