Xbox Helix is in flux, and it’s not entirely Xbox’s fault, although it might be their parent company’s.
The RAMageddon is here, and everything and anything with a chip in it has seen price increases. PlayStation, Xbox, even the iPhone is getting crazy price increases. The AI build-out is leading to inflated memory prices, as hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google race to become key players in the space.
It has huge RAMifications (lol, pun) for Xbox Helix, PlayStation 6, and consumer tech in general. Xbox is already supposedly rethinking the entire console business model as a result.
Rethinking Xbox Helix
So, what’s going on with Xbox Helix? Recently, quotes from Xbox’s new Chief Strategy Officer, Matthew Ball, specifically come from The Game Business, which has some great industry interview content you should definitely check out.
On the topic of wider hardware challenges, specifically around memory, Ball described a scenario where Xbox is effectively rethinking that Helix and the console model in general can actually be in the new economy.
“We are working very hard to rethink everything that we can about Helix, which is a console we are committed to shipping, and we are very cognizant of the ways in which we need to change as a company to make sure it is affordable, to make sure that it’s flexible.”
“We are working hard to rethink what the console model can look like, not in an exclusionary way, but in an additive way. […] But… we are working very hard to figure out the best way to navigate it for a way that works for everyone, that does not ask too much on players, but also doesn’t detract from other investments that we need to make.”
So, affordability is top of mind for them. The Steam Machine recently dropped at over $1,000 despite its relatively modest power draw, lending credence to the idea that the PS6 and Xbox Helix could be even more expensive.
Memory costs are not expected to abate in the near future. Lenovo is suggesting that prices will never come down, and they may well be right, given the monopolistic nature of the industry. There’s a lawsuit for price fixing going on right now, but I digress.
Previous Xbox President Sarah Bond suggested Xbox Helix would be a premium product. Xbox confirmed it would support installing games from other storefronts, like Steam. That it would also have backwards compatibility with all existing Xbox games, even if it’ll be a Windows-first machine.
Herein lies the core dilemma for Xbox, in my view.
An open “Xbox” with Steam, etc. could be insanely expensive …
How can Xbox subsidize an open “PC?” It destroys the affordability model typically associated with console gaming. Steam itself has said that, since SteamOS is “open” to other stores and isn’t a closed box, they have to sell it as a PC.
Xbox is already running into this dilemma with the Xbox Series X|S to some degree. Games that are completely “free” like Fortnite are becoming increasingly prevalent as consumer spending sentiment is squeezed. Since Xbox is selling its hardware at a loss, they are subsidizing some of the biggest games in the world like Roblox and Fortnite, and not receiving a penny. More users than ever are playing free-to-play titles and not spending anything. So, Xbox selling hardware at a loss to this cohort represents effectively giving money away — so that Roblox, Fortnite, etc. can make money. That’s obviously not sustainable.
This is why Microsoft and others are exploring ads to help subsidize the cost of the box, particularly when a user is defaulting to “free” games.
But extrapolating from that, what happens if, with Xbox Helix, players default away from Xbox altogether? It’s unlikely casual players on Roblox and Fortnite are going to upgrade on day one anyway. But, with Steam on the box, there’s a real risk here: What if users bought Xbox Helix, which Microsoft would traditionally sell at a loss, only to play via Steam or the Epic Games Store instead?
In that universe, you’d have to sell Xbox Helix for gaming PC prices. None of this seems viable if the intent is to make Helix affordable. Xbox CEO Asha Sharma has previously suggested the plan is to move ahead with an open PC-like Xbox, but I have to wonder how they plan to reconcile that with gunning for affordability.
PlayStation has already suggested that its PS6 will not be sold at a loss. The volumes that PlayStation typically sells consoles allow them to cut competitive deals for components like memory, but even Apple has had trouble keeping costs down lately. Apple has an absolute iron grip over its supply chain; Xbox is comparatively a smaller, far more niche player, even if it can wield its attachment to Microsoft as a bludgeon.
We saw the consequences of being a smaller player in the component supply chain with the Steam Machine, which is far more expensive than people were hoping for.
I can foresee Helix potentially moving in a few different directions here as a result, if not a combination of several.
Here are the possibilities and speculations summarized, and definitely take them as speculation.
- Xbox Helix could be very premium, costing over $1000, due to the memory rout that will continue for years.
- Microsoft will probably use some proprietary tech via AI super resolution and so on to squeeze more juice out of a “cheaper” build to keep costs down.
- Could Xbox Helix end up not being significantly more powerful to cut costs, but instead some kind of Xbox Series X+ or Xbox Series X Pro?
- “Niche” features like the disc drive will be removed to help cut costs.
- Could Microsoft ship a “cheaper” SKU without storage at all so some could leverage their existing Xbox Series X|S CF Express storage cards? Or other existing M2 / NVME drives they have lying around?
- Now that the hardware will be too expensive, Microsoft may be exploring closing the ecosystem again, removing Steam from the equation — otherwise it’ll need to be gaming PC-priced.
- Microsoft could do some kind of “deal” with Epic Games Store or other third parties to share revenue. Steam obviously wouldn’t do that (it doesn’t need or want to help Xbox here.)
- Could Microsoft lock third-party stores behind a paywall or ads to keep the upfront Xbox costs down? (Although this would be monstrously unpopular, I feel.)
- Perhaps Xbox Helix will be closed out of the box, but let you bring your own Windows license to open it up.
- Microsoft will revive Banjo to help sell a billion units. Okay, maybe not on that one.
Xbox’s ‘X’ factor?
Whatever Xbox does with its platform, there needs to be some kind of X factor here. The current Gen-X / Millennial cohort of gamers is aging out of gaming to some degree, and Gen-Z and younger seem to primarily want free-to-play experiences powered by things like Fortnite and Roblox.
The traditional console players have neglected the younger cohorts chasing older, more spendy gamers, and as a result, sacrificed a generation of compound nostalgia.
With Xbox CEO Asha Sharma’s social media and platform expertise, I have to wonder if there won’t be some kind of “fun” innovations down the line. Under Phil Spencer, Xbox has become a bit of a boring and traditional “software as a service” platform that outsourced the joy to game developers. But historically, platforms have offered a bit more than that — Steam and Nintendo have focused a lot on making their platforms fun and social, while Xbox and PlayStation have generally fled from such things.
One thing is for sure: I don’t think Xbox can “win” by simply emulating PlayStation. They need an X factor, some kind of big innovation that cannot be ignored.
Having an Xbox console with Steam support sounds great on paper, but the economics demand hardware profits upfront — will people pay a premium for an Xbox-branded Windows PC? The RAMageddon has destroyed this opportunity potentially. Game Pass never became the X factor Microsoft hoped it would be; neither did Kinect, nor Xbox Play Anywhere, nor Cloud Gaming.
It’ll be interesting to see how Xbox finds its way through this incredibly challenging time, where instant gratification is demanded, cheap and affordable mobile access has become the default, and forever-platform games have become dominant. I definitely don’t have the answers. I hope Xbox does.
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