The debate over whether or not Xbox should make Elder Scrolls VI exclusive or not isn’t letting up, and the UK’s BBC News recently turned up the heat.
Ahead of the next-gen Xbox Helix, many are wondering how Microsoft can maneuver here. Xbox’s hardware fortunes have been strained to say the least, as Microsoft grapples with strategic mis-steps and an AI-induced memory shortage of epic proportions. The Xbox Series X|S is more expensive than ever, and Xbox Helix threatens to be even more so.
This year, Xbox will return to exclusive content to try and shore up interest in its hardware platform. As sales into its ecosystem collapsed, Microsoft hasn’t been able to grow Xbox Game Pass or third-party sales as much as competitors. This year, Microsoft will ship Gears of War: E-Day exclusively on Xbox, after a few years of ditching exclusivity entirely to sell more content via PlayStation. The move dismembered the brand’s identity arguably, and the lack of confidence planted a question mark over Microsoft’s commitment to remain in the business all up.
On the topic of exclusivity, Xbox CEO Asha Sharma spoke to Laura Cress at the BBC about Elder Scrolls VI. Sharma noted, “every platform needs some form of exclusive experiences and content. We shared Gears [of War: E-Day] and Clockwork [Revolution]. We’re going to do the best we can to continue to do that, all in the context of the business being healthy. We have to balance that.”
Laura pressed Asha to discuss Elder Scrolls VI exclusivity, Asha smiled and replied “it’s a beautiful game …”
Indeed, Sharma has repeatedly cautioned the state of Xbox’s expenditure. Microsoft has blown hundreds of millions on failed projects, such as Avalanche’s open-world vehicular service game Contraband, which I’m told was a particularly expensive write-off for its publishing arm. Microsoft has also spun off a variety of studios like Undead Labs, Ninja Theory, and Double Fine, which also weren’t able to ship quickly enough to even come close to meeting costs.
Some of Microsoft’s pillar gaming franchises like Call of Duty have also seen a downturn in recent years, many of which have been subsidizing parts of the Xbox business that haven’t performed as well. Call of Duty: Black Ops 7 failed to resonate with fans at the same clip as earlier games. Minecraft has also faced stiff competition from Roblox, and Candy Crush Saga has seen its user base chipped away by other casual games like Block Blast and Monopoly Go.
Elder Scrolls VI skipping PlayStation would be potentially putting hundreds of millions of dollars on the shelf in the short term — but keeping it multiplatform could also be just as risky in the long term.
Will Xbox blink?
For Elder Scrolls VI to be exclusive, Microsoft would have to view it as some form of “loss leader” specifically with boosting Xbox’s own platforms in mind. It could be that there simply isn’t enough opportunity to justify the risk in Microsoft’s view.
In my view, Xbox Series X|S and Steam should be enough. For PlayStation and Nintendo, having a smaller addressable audience is worth it to ensure they don’t hollow out their core platform. Asha Sharma has repeatedly emphasized the need to strengthen Xbox’s core, as users who own multiple consoles increasingly defaulted away from Xbox due to a collapse in confidence in Microsoft’s strategy.
Despite mass layoffs earlier in the summer, Xbox is enjoying some positive momentum with consumers right now. Huge marketing deals with Ikea and McDonalds just dropped, for example, and Microsoft’s X20 anniversary celebrations are in full swing. Xbox also just announced a disc-to-digital game preservation program which is a direct shot at PlayStation, who is enduring widespread anger from its vocal decision to end support for physical media. If there was ever a time for Microsoft to double down on Xbox, it’s probably right now.
I feel like people will show up on other platforms to buy Elder Scrolls VI if it’s good enough, whether that’s PCs people already own, Xbox Cloud Gaming, or perhaps even buying an Xbox Helix or Series X|S as a companion console. The goal should be getting users into Xbox’s ecosystem, creating a flywheel for third-party developers, and Xbox Game Pass subscriptions — the latter of which will never be allowed on Nintendo or PlayStation.
Whether or not Xbox is willing to give Elder Scrolls VI some form of exclusivity will be a sign post for how much faith Microsoft has in its gaming brand in my view. I think Sharma’s refusal to commit either way suggests Xbox is still in deep debates and analysis about which way to go …
The Xbox platform would benefit immeasurably from a longer term commitment to highly visible exclusives, but Microsoft of 2026 revolves around short-term thinking and quarterly returns for shareholders. What might be best for Xbox third-party developers and customers is probably in direct opposition to what is best for shareholders, unfortunately.
Time will tell.
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